This projection is based on the comprehensive revitalization of the activities of key sectors of the economy and drastic reduction of the balance of trade deficit.
By certainly drawing all the necessary consequences of this kind of unreserved optimism which characterized the formulation of Vision 2035, whose first stage was the Growth and Em- ployment Strategy Paper (GESP), the Government of Cameroon is now more cautious (no two-digit growth) in terms of evolution of the main macro-economic aggregates in the 2020-2030 National Development Strategy (NDS30).
In fact, this new reference framework aims at transforming Cameroon into an emergent country by the year 2035 and projects an average economic growth rate of 8% in 2030
As such, according to projections of the strategy designers, this aggregate ought to gradually evolve over the periods of 2020-2022 (4.7% of the growth rate), 2023-2025 (7.7%) and 2026-2030 (9.3% on annual average). In fact, in this hypothesis referred to as the ‘‘voluntarist or Vision scena- rio’’, account is taken of the ‘‘additio- nal efforts which Government has to deploy not only to lift current structu- ral constraints, but also better moni- toring/evaluation in order to achieve the objectives of the Vision’’.
This Vision also aims at substantially re- ducing Cameroon’s balance of trade deficit, which would move from 8.8% of GDP in 2018, to at least 3% of GDP in 2030, thanks to the set- ting up of a robust industrial sector capable of conquering markets on the continent and even beyond.
At the sectoral level, and contra- rily to the reference scenario which highlights the proliferation of primary and secondary sector activities, economic growth in the NDS30 ‘‘voluntarist scenario’’ will be propelled by the tertiary whose annual average growth rate is projected at 8.3% (+2.3 points as compared to the reference scena- rio) between 2021 and 2030. ‘‘This performance will mainly result from developments in branches of trade, banking and financial institutions, hotel management and catering, transport, warehouses and communications’’, the strategy unveils.
Moreover, over the same period, an annual average growth rate of 7.9% (+2.2 points above the reference scenario) will be recorded in the primary sector, as against 7.5% (+2.4 points as compared to the basic scenario) in the secondary sector. In this sector, according to official sources, the performance will be based on impetus in the manufacturing indus- try (+6.4%, as against +4.7% in the basic sce- nario) and BPW (an average growth of 11.8% as against 7.9% in the basic scenario).
Yet, all these projected performances may be clouded by persisting security crises in the Far North, North-West and South-West Regions; delays in carrying out agricultural, energy and infrastructural projects; the consequences of pronounced climate change; or better still the occurrence or persistence of a global pande- mic such as the coronavirus.
Brice R. Mbodiam
Social sectors: Propelling education and healthcare to higher heights
During the upcoming ten (10) years, thanks to the new reference framework of its development actions, the State of Cameroon intends to substantially improve the living conditions of its population as well as access to basic social amenities. From this viewpoint, in the educational sector, actions to be imple- mented will contribute, as we are informed, in moving the combined net rate of schooling (proportion of school enrollment of the 6-24 years age bracket), which virtually stagnates at 54% since 2015, to 72% (that is, an increase of 18%) under the reference scenario mentioned earlier. This indicator, according to NDS30, could even hit 81.2% during the period under review, according to the most optimistic hypothesis of the strategy. To achieve this objective, Government intends to successively step up the budget allocated to education from 14.7% of the global envelop in 2020, to 20.8% in 2030, an increase of more than 6% over ten (10) years.
Similarly, as concerns health, life expectancy at birth officially estimated at 58 years in 2018, ought to increase markedly. ‘‘on the strength of good universal health coverage, in particular, and the reinforcement of the health system, in general, life expectancy at birth would witness considerable evolution to stand at 62.1 years with the advent of the strategy under the reference scenario and at 65.2 years under vision scenario’’, officials specify at the Ministry of Economy, Planning and Regional Development.
In the same vein, NDS30 projects ‘‘a price-support mechanism for access to infant nutriments and foodstuffs as well as a national plan to combat malnutrition of pregnant women and children below five (5) years’’, would contribute in reducing mortality rate in children below five (5) years (79 deaths per 1000 live births in 2018) ‘‘to 54.2 per 1000 in 2030 under the reference scenario, as against 36.2 per 1000 under the vision scenario’’. To achieve these objectives in the health sector, the annual budget allocation of the Ministry of Public Health is projected at 6.4% of the overall budget in 2030, as against 4.4% in 2020.
BRM
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