Import-substitution is part of the drive for food independence, mainly in the supply of raw materials for industry.
I n 2022, Cameroon economy vibrated to the rhythm of inflation. This exceptional surge in prices (+6.3%) unfortunately failed to consolidate the recovery that began in 2021, when the country was recovering from the ravages of the coronavirus (Covid-19) health crisis. Indeed, the growth rate of domestic product (GDP), which soared from 0.3% in 2020 (a year marked by the outbreak of Covid-19) to 3.3% in 2021, stood at 3.6% in 2022.
Reminiscences of the pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict have disrupted expansion, says the “Report on Cameroon Economy in 2022: Economic Patriotism in the Face of Headwinds”, published by the Ministry of the Economy, Planning and Regional Development (MINEPAT). These headwinds have slowed production. Faced with the rising cost of commodities and freight, local processing units have slowed down. In the agri-food sector in particular, the rise in wheat prices and disruptions in the supply of this input did not make it possible for industries to supply markets. However, the agri-food industries have nevertheless been able to maintain their growth momentum in the green (+4.9% in 2022), despite the rise in production costs.
This result can also be attributed to the support measures taken by the government, such as the 80% reduc tion in the freight rate used to determine the customs value of goods imported by sea. What is true for the agri-food industries is also true for the secondary sector as a whole, where growth has slowed to 2.7% in 2022, after 4.0% in 2021. This is the weakest growth rate compared with the other two sectors, primary (+3.2%) and tertiary (+4.3%). Coping with crises Now in Year III of the implementation of the National Development Strategy (NDS30), history seems to be repeating itself for Cameroon.
As in the era of the Growth and Employment Strategy Paper (GESP), the reforms developed with a view to the emergence of the national economy are continually coming up against successive, never-ending crises. Covid-19, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, inflation, and so on. Shocks that constantly cast doubt on the ability of governments to successfully implement their de[1]velopment policies.
Cameroon, for its part, must, in spite of everything, succeed in the challenge of industrial transition which, once completed, will strengthen its immunity to present and future shocks. To this end, it needs to build a solid manufacturing industry and catch up technologically. The vision is well known. By 2030, all the reforms currently being carried out to get industry off the ground should enable the contribution of the secondary sector to GDP to rise to 36.8%, compared with 28.2% in 2018. The share of manufacturing added value should also rise to 25% of GDP from 12.9%.
Finally, the share of manufacturing exports is projected to rise to 54.5%, compared with 26.15% in 2015. In other words, a development model that makes manufacturing the engine of growth. This means raising total factor productivity from an average contribution of 5-16% in recent years to a target of 30-40% of the GDP growth rate in the medium and long term. This is an indicator for measuring the efficiency of the productive mix, that is the share of economic growth that is not driven by the increase in the volume of capital and the volume of labour.
Meeting internal needs
The recent tensions on the wheat market and their repercussions on the cost of a loaf of bread in importing countries have clearly reminded them of the urgent need to reduce this very costly dependence, both for governments and for household budgets. The import-substitution policy advocated by the government of Cameroon is part of this drive for food independence, mainly in the supply of raw materials for its industries. By opting for cassava, potato or yam flour instead of wheat, jobs are created on Cameroonian soil. Better still, it guarantees local processing units cheap inputs and, ultimately, competitive products on the local and international markets. To develop this local value chain, increased agricultural production is essential, as is viable infrastructure to supply factories and various consumer centres across the country. In addition, improving the business environment should help attract more capital (investors) to finance this cutting-edge industry. The first sectoral reviews of the NDS30, which have been completed and validated, have made it possible to capitalise on the positive points and identify the shortcomings in the implementation of this compass for 2021. They covered health, the rural sector, infrastructure, education, industry and services, governance and other social protection services. Further reviews were scheduled for 2022 to continue to adjust to the winds, which are slow to die down. Proof that the machine is running.
«The vision is well known. By 2030, all the reforms currently being carried out to get industry off the ground should enable the contribution of the secondary sector to GDP to rise to 36.8%, compared with 28.2% in 2018. »
By Josiane TCHAKOUNTE
Source : Emerging Cameroon
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